Well, the news that the U.S. planned to cancel missile defense deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic was too good to be true. A post from War Resisters’ International on an anti-missile defense listserve points out that other news sources say that the U.S. is planning to station missile defense bases elsewhere in the region.
One article in Gazeta Wyborcza states that the Obama administration plans to station missile defenses “on sea vessels, as well as in Israel, Turkey and possibly in the Balkans.” The article states that “The decision to change the location of the shield has already been made, says sources in the US”
Another article at Makfax quotes Riki Ellison, the Chairman and Founder of Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA) as saying “Congress made it clear that missile shield in Europe must safeguard both Europe and the United States, and therefore, Pentagon wants to relocate missiles from ships to ground. This requires ground bases – one in Israel, and other in Turkey or Balkan.”
In reply, Hans Lammerant, an activist with Vredesactie / Peace Action from the Netherlands writes:
Hello,
at this moment it are all rumours still, but there are other signs as well pointing in this direction. The US government is undertaking a Ballistic Missile Defense Review and a final report would be published in September.
In the originally planned system a third site for an extra radar was still undecided. The Caucasus was mentioned as possible site. So the story was anyway not complete yet.
The US has also delivered an X-band radar, similar to the one envisioned for the Czech Republic, which will be operated by US military and contractors. Official reason is protection for Israel, but it was clear from the beginning that a later integration in the Europe-based missile defense system was possible. Such step would lead to bring Israel closer to NATO and to give it an integrated role in the European defense structures. Something which would not be easily accepted, but now perhaps in exchange for improving the relation with Russia by dropping the European sites.
In February the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), an advice organ of the US Congress, published a report ‘Options for Deploying Missile Defenses in Europe’ listing three other possible options:
Option 2-A standing sea-based defense comprising Aegis ballistic missile defense ships of the U.S. Navy equipped with SM-3 Block IIA interceptors, which are slated to start entering the fleet around 2015. Those ships would maintain three stations-in the waters off Romania, eastern Italy, and Poland-and would be supported by forward-based transportable X-band radars in Azerbaijan and Qatar.
Option 3-Land-based SM-3 Block IIA interceptors operating from mobile launchers at two existing U.S. bases: Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany and Incirlik Air Force Base in Turkey. Tracking would be provided by forward-based transportable X-band radars in Azerbaijan and Qatar. This system would be available around 2015.
Option 4-Land-based Kinetic Energy Interceptors operating from mobile launchers at Ramstein and Incirlik Air Force Bases, supported by forward-based transportable X-band tracking radars in Azerbaijan and Qatar. Given the current development schedule for those interceptors, this system would probably not be available before 2018.
p. 68 also briefly discusses the Israeli radar
source: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10013/02-27-MissileDefense.pdf
This month Boeing announced it could built without problems a system with mobile launchers (option 4) and make it available in 2015: http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/GBI081909.xml The same article mentions that also Raytheon is working on an alternative (option 3) and it would be available in 2013.
Now the news article based on the lobbyist, who made his remarks originally to a Polish newspaper, clearly refers to this options as well. My guess is that he is trying to push the Polish and Czech establishment, who wants these installations, to lobby Washington again.
Whatever the result will be of the report in September, missile defense is not gone. If the Czech-Polish sites are dropped, elsewhere installations will be planned. The CBO-report seems to imply that the Israeli site does not work as an alternative for the Czech radar. Which means at least one of the 3 listed options will be needed. And of course it does not exclude a linking of the Israeli site to the system as an addition. But most probable alternative locations will be Turkey and Germany for mobile launchers, combined with forward based X-band radars.
greetings,
Hans Lammerant
Leave a Reply